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An introduction to Estimating and Forecasting

An introduction to Estimating and Forecasting

Have you ever been asked "How long will it take?" or "How much will it cost?".

Do you stumble around not sure how to answer, or do you find yourself in tough conversations where you need to justify the answer you gave?

David and Jim are joined by Dan Vacanti, globally renowned forecasting expert and author of the hit book: 'When Will It Be Done?'. They take you on a journey that starts with the reasons why we estimate or forecast, finishes with you excited for your next estimation or forecasting opportunity, and provides you with practical tips and tools along the way.

Come and join us!

12 Modules

Getting started

1 About this course 2 What you will learn 3 Before you start

1) Introduction

1 What are you estimating? 2 Why are you estimating? 3 The problem with uncertainty 4 Context-based estimation

2) Definitions

1 Definitions 1: guess, estimate, forecast, predict 2 Definitions 2: accurate and precise 3 Commitments 4 The iron triangle 5 What types of predictions are you asked for? 6 Quick quiz 7 Congratulations

3) Guessing

1 Introduction 2 The 4 rules of guessing 3 Calibration exercise 4 Conclusion 5 Quick quiz 6 Congratulations 7 BONUS: True False calibration

4) Estimating

1 Introduction 2 Relative sizing 3 Mathless CI 4 Fermi problems 5 Wisdom of Crowds 6 Conclusion 7 Quick quiz 8 Congratulations

5) Forecasting: getting started

1 Introduction to forecasting 2 Getting ready: what data to collect 3 ActionableAgile analytics overview: navigation and loading data 4 ActionableAgile analytics overview: filtering and chart controls

6) Forecasting: how long to complete a list of work items?

1 When will it be done? 2 Where to begin: what is throughput? 3 How to calculate throughput 4 Problems with traditional forecasting techniques 5 Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) foundations 6 MCS using throughput 7 How to read an MCS results histogram 8 MCS "When" in ActionableAgile

7) Forecasting: "How many?" for a given date

1 Module overview 2 Data/metrics needed for a "How Many" forecast 3 How to do MCS for a "How Many" forecast 4 How to read a "How Many" MCS results histogram 5 MCS "How Many" in ActionableAgile

8) Some things to consider when forecasting with MCS

1 How much data do I need? 2 Which historical data do I use? 3 Continuous forecasting 4 Continuous forecasting part 2: Take action! 5 What If I don't have any data? 6 Best thing to do to get better at multiple item forecasts

9) Forecasting the completion of a single item

1 Module overview 2 Where to begin: What is Cycle Time? 3 How to display Cycle Time data: The Cycle Time scatterplot 4 How to read a scatterplot for forecasting 5 The Service Level Expectation (SLE)

10) Work item ageing

1 Ageing overview 2 More data 3 Ageing chart overview 4 Leveraging ageing part I 5 Leveraging ageing part II 6 Leveraging ageing part III 7 Right sizing

Wrap up

Modules for this online course 12

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An introduction to Estimating and Forecasting
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